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pm-assumption-testing

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Plan how to test the assumptions behind a product idea before building — decompose the idea into its load-bearing beliefs, prioritize the riskiest, phrase them as falsifiable hypotheses, and pick the cheapest method that answers the question. Or critique an existing validation plan. Trigger when asked to validate an idea, de-risk a feature, plan discovery/experiments, test assumptions or a hypothesis, design an MVP test, or decide "how do we know this will work?"

pm/processes/assumption-testing/SKILL.md

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Jul 2, 2026
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# Assumption Testing Skill

## How this skill behaves (read first)

This is a **generative** skill, and "validate our idea" is a default trap. The instinctive move is to jump to a method — build an MVP, run a survey, ship an A/B test — or to test *the idea* ("do you like this?", which everyone says yes to) instead of the **assumptions the idea depends on**. The other failure is investment mismatch: writing code to answer a question a one-day test would settle, or betting the quarter on a hallway poll. So this skill gates:

1. **Establish the decision and its stakes** — what choice does this inform, and how reversible/expensive is it? That sets how much rigor is warranted.
2. **Apply the always-true core** — decompose into testable assumptions, prioritize the riskiest, phrase them falsifiably, set success criteria up front.
3. **Choose the method deliberately** — surface the fidelity/method decision with trade-offs; don't default to "build it and see."

Then it **hands the plan to `pm-assumption-rigor-audit`** to validate (and `pm-okr-metric-validity-audit` for the success metric). **Applying every test type to every assumption is the failure mode** — match one good method to each risky belief.

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