Individual skill
catalyst-confirmation
Use when a Polymarket prediction-market thesis rests on an external event — CPI, Fed, elections, court rulings, ETF decisions — and needs market confirmation before committing.
skills/catalyst-confirmation/SKILL.md
Source commit 9d41db54b231f77e35610a73230eaeffcb456215
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- Last checked
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# Strategy: Polymarket · Catalyst Confirmation
## When to use
Use this when the user ties a strategy idea to an external event (CPI, Fed, court rulings, ETF, earnings, protocol upgrade, sports injuries) and wants Polymarket behavior to confirm it.
## What the agent should look for
- Canonical Polymarket market from `GET /context/markets?venue=polymarket`.
- Clear catalyst timestamp or date.
- Evidence of filled-trade reaction after the catalyst window.
- Enough filled history around the event window.
- Confirmation that market question maps directly to the catalyst.
