Individual skill
probability-mean-reversion
Use when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range.
skills/probability-mean-reversion/SKILL.md
Source commit 9d41db54b231f77e35610a73230eaeffcb456215
What was checked
- Matches the observed repository HEAD
- Yes
- Scanner rules are current
- Yes
- Repository scan complete
- No
- Skill scan complete
- Yes
- Observed behavior
- Instructions only
- Last checked
- Nov 11, 2026
These are observations at the recorded commit, not a guarantee of safety. Review the source before running it.
Install this skill
Choose an agent in your Stack or copy a command below. Commands fetch the pinned commit and copy only this skill directory. Existing destinations are refused. Copying a command does not install anything.
An install command is unavailable: current rules, complete repository and skill scans, an eligible behavior level and a permitted license are required.
Repository context
- Repository stars (not skill ratings)
- 232
- Repository last updated
- Sep 10, 2026
- License
- MIT
Observed agent integration: No specific integration evidence. Standard SKILL.md installation does not imply verified compatibility.
- agent-skills Repository topic
- backtesting Repository topic
- hyperliquid Repository topic
- trading Repository topic
- ai-agents Repository topic
- algorithmic-trading Repository topic
- equities Repository topic
- llm Repository topic
- mcp Repository topic
- polymarket Repository topic
- engineering Derived category
Files and excerpt
File metadata and permitted, redacted excerpts come from the recorded scan. Source links are pinned to that commit.
Browse files
SKILL.mdcore · 2,494 bytes
Read excerpt
# Strategy: Polymarket · Probability Mean Reversion
## When to use
Use this when someone asks for fade, overreaction, mean reversion, range trading, panic buy, euphoria selloff, or probability jumps with weak follow-through.
## What the agent should look for
- Canonical Polymarket market from `GET /context/markets?venue=polymarket`.
- A stable market with enough historical fills.
- Probability significantly far from a rolling median.
- Weak follow-through after the jump.
- No fresh catalyst changing the thesis.
- Enough time before resolution to allow drift back.