Individual skill

forecast-modeling

Use when designing, tuning, or auditing revenue forecast models.

plugins/revenue-forecasting-pipeline/skills/forecast-modeling/SKILL.md

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# Forecast Modeling System Skill

## When to Use
- Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology.
- Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles.
- Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals.

## Framework
1. **Method Selection** – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions.
2. **Driver Mapping** – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs.
3. **Scenario Logic** – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis.
4. **Model Governance** – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership.
5. **Output Packaging** – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review.
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