Individual skill
test-risky-prediction
Derive a risky/nontrivial prediction uniquely or strongly implied by an explanation and test whether available evidence supports it; distinguish post-hoc accommodation from prospective constraint.
skills/test-risky-prediction/SKILL.md
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# test-risky-prediction
## Purpose
Derive a risky prediction uniquely or strongly implied by an explanation and test it against evidence.
## Input contract
```yaml
required: [explanation, alternatives, available_evidence]
optional: [prospective_predictions, test_conditions]
constraints: [prediction must distinguish the explanation from at least one alternative]
```
## Procedure
1. Derive prediction and its distinguishing conditions.
2. Check whether it was prospective or post-hoc.
3. Compare evidence and classify support, failure, or accommodation.
## Output contract