Individual skill

yao-bayesian-skill

Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision logs, and Markdown plus bilingual HTML output. Do not use for Bayes theorem tutoring, homework, generic brainstorming with no report, or final licensed medical, legal, or financial advice.

skills/yao-bayesian-skill/SKILL.md

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Matches the observed repository HEAD: Yes
Scanner rules are current: Yes
Repository scan complete: No
Skill scan complete: Yes
Observed behavior: Local scripts
Last checked: Nov 9, 2026

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Repository context

Repository stars (not skill ratings): 1,326
Repository last updated: Oct 14, 2026
License: MIT

Observed agent integration: No specific integration evidence. Standard SKILL.md installation does not imply verified compatibility.

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Files and excerpt

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Browse files

SKILL.mdcore · 3,823 bytes
agents/interface.yamlasset · 930 bytes
evals/semantic_config.jsonasset · 3,865 bytes
evals/trigger_cases.jsonasset · 1,147 bytes
input/bayesian_decision_request.template.jsonasset · 11,258 bytes
input/detailed_growth_case.jsonasset · 16,319 bytes
input/geo_overseas_service_case.jsonasset · 17,869 bytes
input/sanya_travel_case.jsonasset · 7,004 bytes
input/sanya_travel_real_case.jsonasset · 10,876 bytes
manifest.jsonasset · 585 bytes
references/decision-report-contract.mddoc · 1,822 bytes
references/evidence-prior-playbook.mddoc · 2,496 bytes
references/intake-contract.mddoc · 1,898 bytes
references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.mddoc · 2,257 bytes
references/prior-hygiene-checklist.mddoc · 5,086 bytes
references/report-export-pipeline.mddoc · 3,437 bytes
references/sensitivity-and-safety.mddoc · 1,659 bytes
reports/README.mddoc · 1,178 bytes
reports/detailed-growth-case.htmlasset · 91,793 bytes
reports/detailed-growth-case.mddoc · 10,938 bytes
reports/detailed-growth-case.pdfasset · 1,112,737 bytes
reports/example-decision-report.htmlasset · 83,615 bytes
reports/example-decision-report.mddoc · 9,521 bytes
reports/example-decision-report.pdfasset · 1,024,486 bytes
reports/geo-overseas-service-case.htmlasset · 91,014 bytes
reports/geo-overseas-service-case.mddoc · 12,659 bytes
reports/geo-overseas-service-case.pdfasset · 1,137,597 bytes
reports/sanya-travel-case.htmlasset · 70,931 bytes
reports/sanya-travel-case.mddoc · 8,553 bytes
reports/sanya-travel-case.pdfasset · 863,455 bytes
reports/sanya-travel-real-report.htmlasset · 75,782 bytes
reports/sanya-travel-real-report.mddoc · 10,255 bytes
reports/sanya-travel-real-report.pdfasset · 926,219 bytes
scripts/bayesian_decision_report.pyruns · 53,292 bytes
scripts/generate_report_bundle.pyruns · 70,291 bytes
templates/report-theme.cssasset · 17,665 bytes
templates/report.schema.jsonasset · 2,482 bytes

Read excerpt


# Yao Bayesian Skill

## Use This Skill For

- structure a vague choice into hypothesis, time horizon, success metric, and actions
- set a prior, grade evidence, update posterior, compare action thresholds, and recommend next information
- start from incomplete input with a weak prior, then improve the judgment through multi-turn questioning
- export one synchronized Chinese-first `markdown` plus bilingual `html` report

## Do Not Route Here

- Bayes theorem tutoring or homework-only calculations
- broad research or brainstorming with no explicit decision report
- final professional medical, legal, or investment advice