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news-reaction-failure-analyzer

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Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.

skills/news-reaction-failure-analyzer/SKILL.md

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Nov 12, 2026
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MIT

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# News Reaction Failure Analyzer

## Overview

Implements step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process: once a market
is flagged as crowded (`cot-contrarian-detector`, step 1), check whether it
FAILED to react to news that should have rewarded the crowd. A crowded-long
market that doesn't rally on genuinely bullish news, or a crowded-short
market that doesn't sell off on genuinely bearish news, is the core
behavioral tell that the crowd has run out of buying/selling power — this
is the confirmation step that turns "crowded" into a contrarian setup
candidate (steps 3-5, still manual: price-action confirmation, entry, exit).

**Why this isn't a naive failure-ratio check:** an earlier design flagged
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