Individual skill
thinking-probabilistic
Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities into order-of-magnitude bounds.
skills/thinking-probabilistic/SKILL.md
Source commit 7b8fece345dfaa11773be7152ccd194589cb5437
What was checked
- Matches the observed repository HEAD
- Yes
- Scanner rules are current
- Yes
- Repository scan complete
- No
- Skill scan complete
- Yes
- Observed behavior
- Instructions only
- Last checked
- Nov 9, 2026
These are observations at the recorded commit, not a guarantee of safety. Review the source before running it.
Install this skill
Choose an agent in your Stack or copy a command below. Commands fetch the pinned commit and copy only this skill directory. Existing destinations are refused. Copying a command does not install anything.
An install command is unavailable: current rules, complete repository and skill scans, an eligible behavior level and a permitted license are required.
Repository context
- Repository stars (not skill ratings)
- 1,724
- Repository last updated
- Aug 7, 2026
- License
- MIT
Observed agent integration: No specific integration evidence. Standard SKILL.md installation does not imply verified compatibility.
- ai-tools Repository topic
- anthropic Repository topic
- claude Repository topic
- claude-code Repository topic
- critical-thinking Repository topic
- decision-making Repository topic
- first-principles Repository topic
- mental-models Repository topic
- problem-solving Repository topic
- systems-thinking Repository topic
- engineering Derived category
Files and excerpt
File metadata and permitted, redacted excerpts come from the recorded scan. Source links are pinned to that commit.
Browse files
SKILL.mdcore · 4,516 bytes
Read excerpt
# Probabilistic Thinking
**Core rule:** State beliefs as numbers and ranges, not vibes. Anchor on a base rate, update with an explicit likelihood, and bound unknowns by factoring them — never invent false precision.
## When to Use
- Timeline, effort, or outcome forecasts where the true value is uncertain.
- Risk sizing for a change, migration, deploy, or launch.
- Any moment you are about to state a confident single number you cannot actually know.
- New evidence arrives and a prior estimate should move.
## When NOT to Use
- The quantity is measurable or look-up-able — measure or look it up.