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thinking-second-order

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When a change has effects past the immediate fix—incentives, scale, feedback—trace consequence chains with timing and probability before committing.

skills/thinking-second-order/SKILL.md

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# Second-Order Consequence Chains

Do not stop at the intended first effect. Trace what happens next across actors, time, and feedback until the chain stops changing the decision.

## When to Use

- Strategic, policy, incentive, or architecture choices with lasting coupling.
- The obvious fix feels too easy or has known backfire patterns.
- Success or scale would create new problems (load, gaming, debt).
- Need to compare options by delayed effects, not only day-one benefit.

## When NOT to Use

- Local reversible edit with no incentive or cross-component coupling—just ship and observe.
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