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bayesian-inference

Bayesian parameter estimation with MCMC (emcee) and probabilistic programming (PyMC). Posterior distributions, corner plots, model evidence, convergence diagnostics. Use when you need full posterior distributions, not just point estimates.

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# Bayesian Inference

## Overview

Full Bayesian parameter estimation using MCMC sampling. Get posterior distributions (not just best-fit values), compute credible intervals, compare models via Bayes factors, and diagnose sampler convergence.

## When to Use

- You need full posterior distributions (not just point estimates)
- Parameters are correlated and you want the joint posterior
- You want to compare models using Bayesian evidence
- Prior information is available and should be incorporated
- Error bars from least-squares seem unreliable