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forecast-creator-pipeline

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Use this skill when creator budget needs a defensible forecast — "what will €10K of creator spend produce," "build the pipeline model for the creator channel," "what ARR can we commit to from this program." A five-input model (budget, cost per qualified click, click→opportunity rate, win rate, ACV) with a worked example and the sensitivity insight that decides where tuning effort goes.

skills/thomas-marcelle/forecast-creator-pipeline/SKILL.md

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Use when the creator channel needs a forward number leadership can hold you to. Produces a pipeline forecast from five inputs — all observable, none hand-waved.

## The five inputs

1. **budget (B)** — the quarter's spend
2. **cost per qualified click (C)** — from your own campaign history; network baseline ~€2.30–2.40
3. **click → opportunity rate (O)** — planning band 3–6% for a well-defined ICP audience
4. **opportunity → close rate (W)** — your actual sales win rate, from the CRM
5. **ACV** — real average contract value, from the CRM

Qualified click means tracked AND ≥30 seconds on-site — the behavioral definition is what makes the whole model honest.

## The model
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