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marketing-attribution

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Guides selection and honest application of a marketing attribution model, surfacing common measurement traps. Use when evaluating channel ROI, auditing tracking, or choosing between attribution models.

skills/marketing-attribution/SKILL.md

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# Marketing Attribution

Attribution does not reveal truth - it reveals a model's assumptions about truth. Choosing a model is choosing a set of tradeoffs. The goal is to pick the model that creates the least-distorted decisions for the business, not the one that flatters the most channels.

## Understand What Each Model Assumes

First-touch attribution credits the first interaction entirely - useful for understanding discovery channels, but it ignores everything that closed the sale. Last-touch does the opposite and over-credits closers like brand search. Linear attribution spreads credit evenly - neutral but often meaningless. Time-decay weights recent touches more heavily - reasonable for short sales cycles. Data-driven attribution uses conversion path modeling - best in theory but requires high conversion volume (typically 1,000+ monthly conversions) and complete tracking. Position-based (U-shaped) splits 40/20/40 between first touch, middle, and last touch - a practical default for teams that lack volume for data-driven models.

## Choose Based on Sales Cycle and Data Volume

For sales cycles under 7 days with fewer than 500 monthly conversions: use last-touch with branded/direct excluded. For cycles 7-30 days: use position-based. For cycles over 30 days or complex B2B: use time-decay or a CRM-based opportunity model. For teams with 1,000+ conversions and clean tracking: test data-driven and compare decisions it produces versus current model. Never use first-touch as a primary model for budget allocation - it systematically over-invests in awareness and starves conversion channels.

## Avoid the Three Most Common Traps
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