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revenue-modeling

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Builds SaaS revenue models - a reconciling MRR/ARR bridge, cohort retention forecasting, a driver tree from leads to new ARR, and base/upside/downside scenarios. Use when someone asks "model my ARR for next year", "what will MRR be if churn doubles", "build a revenue forecast for the board", "why doesn't my MRR bridge tie out", or "what NRR do we need to hit our plan". Do NOT use for sizing the market opportunity - use market-sizing instead; for CAC, LTV, and payback analysis use unit-economics; for a full P&L or headcount-driven operating model use fpa-model; for cash timing and runway use cash-flow-forecast.

skills/revenue-modeling/SKILL.md

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Oct 13, 2026
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# Revenue Modeling

A revenue model that does not reconcile is a story, not a model. The costly failure mode is a forecast built from a single blended growth rate: it hides which lever (new logos, expansion, churn) is actually moving, so the plan cannot be managed and the miss cannot be diagnosed. Build the model from a bridge that must tie out and drivers that someone owns.

## Operating procedure

Steps run in this order because the bridge defines the accounting, the drivers feed the bridge, and scenarios only mean something once base-case drivers are pinned.

### Step 1: gather inputs

Collect, and label every unsourced number a guess:

- Beginning MRR (or ARR) and customer count, tied to the billing system or GL - not a spreadsheet someone remembers.
- Trailing 6-12 months of the bridge components: new, expansion, reactivation, contraction, churned MRR.
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