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budget-vs-actual

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Structures a budget-vs-actual variance analysis that isolates root causes - price/volume/mix decomposition, timing vs structural expense buckets, a materiality screen, and reforecast flags - instead of restating numbers. Use when someone asks "why did we miss budget", "write the variance commentary for the board deck", "explain this expense overrun", or is closing the month and owes narrative on the P&L. Do NOT use to build the budget or plan itself - use budget-builder instead; do NOT use for a full driver-based forecast model - use fpa-model instead; do NOT use for cash timing and runway questions - use cash-flow-forecast instead.

skills/budget-vs-actual/SKILL.md

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Oct 13, 2026
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# Budget vs. Actual Variance Analysis

Variance analysis is diagnostic, not descriptive. A report that says revenue was 8% below budget is not analysis. Analysis says why, which team or product drove it, whether it is recoverable, and what it means for the full-year forecast. The costly failure is a wall of explanations for immaterial noise that buries the one structural miss the leadership team needed to act on.

## Operating procedure

### Step 1: Gather inputs

1. The actuals and budget at the same level of account granularity, for the period and YTD.
2. Total monthly revenue budget (it sets the materiality floor).
3. For revenue lines: budgeted and actual units and price by segment, if available. If not, note that decomposition will be directional and label it as such.
4. Known one-offs and timing shifts already identified by the accounting close (pair with month-end-close for the close itself).
5. The audience: internal ops review or board deck. Default: board-ready.
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