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time-series-analysis

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Temporal pattern detection and forecasting. Use when analyzing trends over time, detecting seasonality, identifying anomalies in time series, or building simple forecasting models for planning.

03-data-analysis-investigation/time-series-analysis/SKILL.md

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# Time Series Analysis

# When to use
- Building a forecast for operational planning (staffing, inventory, infrastructure capacity)
- Identifying whether a trend is genuine or driven by seasonality
- Detecting anomalies in a metric stream (traffic spikes, revenue dips, error rate surges)
- Providing a "what would have happened" baseline for measuring initiative impact
- Presenting year-over-year growth in a way that accounts for seasonal patterns

# Process
1. **Load and inspect the time series** — confirm regular intervals (fill gaps if needed), check for obvious data quality issues (negative values, zeros in non-zero series), and identify the natural granularity (daily, weekly, monthly).
2. **Test for stationarity** — run an ADF test. If non-stationary (trend or seasonality present), note this — it informs decomposition and model choice rather than blocking analysis. See `references/ts_patterns_guide.md`.
3. **Decompose into components** — separate the time series into trend, seasonal, and residual using additive or multiplicative decomposition. Measure the strength of each component (0–1). Strong seasonality (>0.6) means raw values are misleading without seasonal adjustment.
4. **Detect anomalies** — flag points more than 3 standard deviations from the rolling median. Investigate the top 5 anomalies against the event log (product releases, campaigns, incidents). Use `scripts/ts_analyzer.py --detect-anomalies`.
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