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evidence-grading

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Grade the evidence behind a claim before betting on it — the hierarchy for business evidence (experiments > usage data > surveys > interviews > anecdotes > opinion), the fit-for-decision test, and the mixed-evidence verdicts that real questions produce. Use when asked how strong is our evidence for this, grade what we know before the decision, is this enough to bet on, or we have three anecdotes and a survey — now what. Produces the evidence inventory with grades, the sufficiency verdict against the decision's stakes, and the cheapest-upgrade path.

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# Evidence Grading Skill

"We have evidence" covers everything from a randomized experiment to the CEO's seatmate on a flight — and decisions made on ungraded evidence inherit the confusion. The grading discipline: inventory what actually supports the claim, place each item on the business-evidence hierarchy (what it *is*, not how confident it feels), test the graded weight against the decision's stakes (a reversible pilot needs less than a one-way rebrand — [decision-journal](../decision-journal/SKILL.md) logic), and when evidence falls short, name the *cheapest upgrade* — because the answer to weak evidence is usually a better test, not a braver bet.

## What This Skill Produces

- **The evidence inventory** — everything supporting (and contradicting) the claim, each item graded on the hierarchy
- **The weight assessment** — what the graded pile actually supports, including the mixed-signals honest read
- **The sufficiency verdict** — enough for this decision's stakes / not yet — with the stakes analysis shown
- **The upgrade path** — the cheapest next evidence that would move the verdict ("a 2-week holdout test settles this for $0")

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