Individual skill
assumption-bounty
Extract every hidden assumption from a plan or document and put a price on each one — what it costs if wrong, what it costs to test. Use when about to commit to anything whose author says 'obviously' or whose spreadsheet has hardcoded cells: the bounty hunt makes the invisible load-bearing beliefs explicit and tells you which three to test this week. Produces the assumption ledger (priced and ranked), the cheapest test for each dangerous one, and the document's honest confidence statement.
plugins/pm-warroom/skills/assumption-bounty/SKILL.md
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# Assumption Bounty
Every plan is a stack of beliefs wearing a costume of facts. Most die from an assumption nobody wrote down — because unwritten assumptions can't be tested, assigned, or noticed when they quietly become false. The bounty hunt pays by the find: every hidden belief extracted, priced, and ranked by (cost if wrong) ÷ (cost to test).
## Required Inputs
- **The document** — plan, model, PRD, forecast, strategy. Spreadsheet-backed documents: include the key hardcoded numbers; each one is an assumption in a trench coat.
- Optional: which assumptions the team already knows about — the bounty only pays for *hidden* ones, and knowing the acknowledged list sharpens the hunt.
## Where Assumptions Hide
- **In verbs**: "users will migrate" (will they?), "the team can absorb" (can it?)
- **In adjectives**: "conservative estimate", "simple integration", "standard terms"
- **In silence**: what the document never mentions — pricing pages that assume no competitor response, hiring plans that assume no attrition