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runway-monte-carlo

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Cash runway as a distribution, not a number — Monte Carlo simulated. Use when someone asks how long their cash lasts, when to start fundraising, or how burn/revenue volatility changes their runway; especially when the naive cash÷burn answer is driving a decision. Produces P10/P50/P90 runway, month-by-month death probabilities, and a real .xlsx with editable assumptions and a live naive-runway formula — via the bundled zero-dependency simulator.

skills/runway-monte-carlo/SKILL.md

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Nov 10, 2026
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# Runway Monte Carlo

"Cash divided by burn" is one path through a fan of thousands. Real burn wobbles, revenue growth compounds or doesn't, and the difference between the median path and the unlucky-decile path is the difference between a calm raise and a bridge round. This skill runs the simulation — thousands of paths, actual random draws by the bundled script — and reports runway the way it actually behaves: as percentiles.

## Required Inputs

- **Cash today** and **monthly gross burn** — the two non-negotiables.
- **Monthly revenue** and **monthly revenue growth** (optional — zero for pre-revenue).
- **Volatility** (optional, defaults: burn σ 10%, growth σ 25% of the growth rate) — from the requester's history if they have it, defaults if not, stated either way.
- Horizon (default 36 months) and simulation count (default 5,000).

## Output Format

1. **The distribution** — P10 (unlucky), P50 (median), P90 (lucky) runway in months, the survival probability at the horizon, and the naive cash÷net-burn number alongside for contrast.
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