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renew-or-churn-call

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Score an account's renewal likelihood on a five-level scale with probabilities, and name the next move for the account owner. Use when asked will this account renew, what's the churn risk on this account, should we run a save play, or when a renewal is 30–120 days out and the owner needs a calibrated read rather than a gut feel. Produces the account state in a fixed schema, the five-level renewal score with a probability per level and confidence, the mapped next move, and the single signal that would change the call.

plugins/pm-decisions/skills/renew-or-churn-call/SKILL.md

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Nov 10, 2026
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# Renew or Churn Call

Health scores drift into vibes because nobody defines the levels. This skill fixes five levels — from *will churn* to *will renew and expand* — each with the evidence that puts an account there, and returns a probability for every level. The next move is mapped to the level, so the output is an action, not a colour.

## Where this sits

After [`cs-health-scorecard`](../cs-health-scorecard/SKILL.md) (which gathers the dimensions) and before [`renewal-playbook`](../renewal-playbook/SKILL.md) or [`cs-escalation-brief`](../cs-escalation-brief/SKILL.md) (which run the move). This one decides which move.

## What This Skill Produces

- **The account state** — six fields, filled from CRM and usage evidence
- **The renewal score** — one of five defined levels, with a probability per level and a confidence score
- **The next move** — mapped from the level (save play, playbook, discovery call, standard motion, expansion)
- **The flip signal** — the one change in state that would move the level
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