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assumption-audit

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Surface the hidden assumptions a plan or belief rests on, then test what happens when each one is wrong. Use when asked what am I assuming here, check my assumptions, what if I'm wrong about, or stress-test my thinking. Produces the unstated assumptions your conclusion depends on (ranked by how load-bearing they are), a flip of each to see which one breaking would change everything, and the cheapest way to check the riskiest ones — because the assumption you didn't know you were making is what sinks plans.

plugins/pm-thinking/skills/assumption-audit/SKILL.md

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# Assumption Audit

Every plan sits on a stack of assumptions, and the dangerous ones are invisible — you don't question what you don't notice you believe. This drags them into the light, ranks them by how much weight they carry, and flips the load-bearing ones to see which single wrong assumption would collapse the whole thing. Then it tells you the cheapest way to check that one before you bet on it.

## What This Skill Produces

- **The assumption list** — the unstated beliefs your plan/conclusion depends on, including the ones you didn't realize you were making
- **Load-bearing ranking** — which assumptions, if wrong, barely matter vs. which would collapse everything
- **The flip test** — for the critical ones, what actually happens if they're false
- **The cheap check** — the fastest, lowest-cost way to test the riskiest assumption before committing

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