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escalate-or-hold

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Decide whether an issue gets escalated now, held with a re-check time, or closed — as a typed decision with probabilities rather than a judgment call in a thread. Use when asked should I escalate this, is this a P1, do we page someone, hold or escalate, or when an on-call, support lead or PM is staring at an issue and unsure. Produces the issue state in a fixed schema, the three-way decision with probabilities and confidence, the act-or-hold verdict, and the re-check time when holding.

plugins/pm-decisions/skills/escalate-or-hold/SKILL.md

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# Escalate or Hold

Most escalation mistakes are timing mistakes: too late because nobody wanted to be the one who paged, or too early because the reporter shouted. This skill fixes the shape of the decision — six state fields, three defined options, a probability for each — so the call is made on impact and trend rather than on volume.

## Where this sits

Before [`cs-escalation-brief`](../cs-escalation-brief/SKILL.md) (which writes the brief once you *have* decided to escalate) and alongside [`escalation-tree`](../escalation-tree/SKILL.md) (which says *to whom*). This one says *whether, and when*.

## What This Skill Produces

- **The issue state** — six fields, filled from evidence
- **The decision** — `escalate` / `hold` / `close` with probabilities and confidence
- **Act or hold** — thresholds applied, verdict stated
- **The re-check time** — when holding, a hard time (hours, not days) and what would trigger escalation before it
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