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decision-autopsy

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Judge a past decision by its PROCESS, not its outcome — because good decisions lose and bad decisions win, and teams that can't tell the difference learn the wrong lessons. Use when reviewing a big call after the fact (a bet that failed, a pass that haunts, a hire, a pivot) and the room is about to conclude 'it failed so it was wrong.' Produces a process-forensics report: what was knowable then, the quality grade of the decision as-made, the luck accounting, and the ONE process change worth keeping.

skills/decision-autopsy/SKILL.md

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# Decision Autopsy

Outcome bias is the strongest bias in organisational memory: the bet that failed becomes "obviously reckless," the coin-flip that landed becomes "visionary." The autopsy separates the two questions that always get merged: *was it a good decision?* and *did it get a good outcome?* — because only the first is under anyone's control next time.

## Required Inputs

- **The decision** — what was decided, when, by whom, and what the live alternatives were.
- **What was knowable at the time** — the information, constraints, and time pressure as of the decision date. Be strict: things learned afterward go in a separate pile, and the autopsy will police the boundary.
- **The outcome** — what actually happened, so the luck accounting has something to account.

## The Forensic Frames

- **The information test:** given only what was knowable then, what would a calibrated outsider have chosen? (The autopsy answers this *before* re-examining the outcome, to keep hindsight out of the grade.)
- **The process test:** were alternatives really generated? Was disconfirming evidence sought or only tolerated? Was the reversibility of the choice priced in? Was a kill-criterion set?
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