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demand-forecast-review

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Interrogate a demand forecast before the business commits supply and inventory to it. Use when asked to review a demand plan, challenge a forecast, check forecast accuracy, decompose baseline vs uplift, or find hockey sticks in the numbers. Produces a forecast credibility review with baseline/uplift decomposition, MAPE and bias history, hockey-stick flags, an assumption register, and consensus-vs-statistical divergence analysis.

skills/demand-forecast-review/SKILL.md

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Nov 11, 2026
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# Demand Forecast Review Skill

Every unit of forecast becomes purchase orders, capacity commitments, and inventory. This skill interrogates a forecast the way a supply planner must: separate the defensible baseline from hopeful uplift, confront the forecast with its own accuracy history, hunt for hockey sticks, and register every assumption so that when the number misses, you know which belief broke.

## What This Skill Produces

- A baseline vs. uplift decomposition (statistical base + named uplift layers)
- Forecast accuracy history: MAPE and bias, with what they imply for buffering
- Hockey-stick and pattern-anomaly flags
- An assumption register with owner, evidence strength, and expiry
- Consensus vs. statistical divergence flags with a burden-of-proof call
- An overall credibility verdict: plan to it / plan to it with buffers / send back

## Required Inputs
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