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digital-oracle

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Answer prediction questions using market trading data, not opinions. Use when the user asks probability questions about geopolitics, economics, markets, industries, or any topic where real money is being traded on the outcome. Examples: 'What's the probability of WW3?', 'Will there be a recession?', 'Is AI in a bubble?', 'When will the Russia-Ukraine war end?', 'Is it a good time to buy gold?', 'Will SPY drop 5% this month?', 'Is NVDA options premium overpriced?'. The skill reads prices from prediction markets, commodities, equities, options chains, derivatives, yield curves, and currencies, then cross-validates multiple signals to produce a structured probability report.

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Jul 26, 2026
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# digital-oracle

> Markets are efficient. Price contains all public information. Reading price = reading market consensus.

## Methodology

**Answer questions using only market trading data — no news, opinions, or statistical reports as causal evidence.** If something is true, some market has already priced it in.

Five iron rules:

1. **Trading data only** — prices, volume, open interest, spreads, premiums. Never cite analyst opinions.
2. **Explicit reasoning from price to judgment** — explain clearly "why this price answers this question."
3. **Multi-signal cross-validation** — never conclude from a single signal. At least 3 independent dimensions.
4. **Label the time horizon of each signal** — options price 3 months, equipment orders price 3 years — don't mix them in the same vote.