Individual skill
judgment-training
当用户需要做方向性判断、评估「该往哪走/这事靠谱吗」、或想提升决策能力时调用。 核心理念: 判断力(知道行为长期后果)比努力重要; 清晰思考=从基础学科重建推理; 收集心智模型(复利/委托代理/可证伪性/基础数学)。 不适用于: 需要立即执行的具体任务步骤。 Triggers: 判断力/方向/第一性原理/心智模型/思维模型/判断靠不靠谱/judgment/mental model/first principles
books/naval-almanack-skill/judgment-training/SKILL.md
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# 判断力训练
## R — 原文 (Reading)
> 努力工作的价值真的被高估了。在现代经济中，努力工作不是那么重要。那什么被低估了？判断力。……真正聪明的思考者是思维清晰的思考者。他们理解非常非常基本的基础知识。……如果你不能根据需要从基础知识重新推导出概念，你会迷惑不解。你只是熟记而已。
>
> — 纳瓦尔·拉维坎特, 《纳瓦尔宝典》 第一章·财富
## I — 方法论骨架 (Interpretation)
判断力=知道行为长期后果并据此决策的能力，它是杠杆时代最重要的生产力——
一个正确的决定可以赢过大量低效努力，而错误方向上的努力只会放大损失。
训练判断力有三个路径：
① **从基础重建**——真正理解=能从头推导；高级概念无法推导就只是熟记；最聪明的人能把事情向小孩讲明白；