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decision-heuristics

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当用户在重大选择上纠结（换工作/买房/搬城/合伙/结婚）、列了利弊表还是拿不定主意时调用。 核心理念: 无法决定就答否; 三个重大决定(住哪/和谁/做什么)值得花一两年; 两个均等选择选短期更痛苦的路。 不适用于: 日常琐碎选择（晚饭吃什么）、信息查询。 Triggers: 纠结/拿不定主意/要不要/该不该/利弊/decision/hesitate/should I

books/naval-almanack-skill/decision-heuristics/SKILL.md

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# 重大决策启发式

## R — 原文 (Reading)

> 如果你无法下决定，就回答否。原因是，现代社会充满了选择。……当你选择某些事物时，你会被锁定一段很长的时间。……简单的启发式算法：如果你在一个困难的决定上有同等程度的分歧，那么就选择在短期内会更痛苦的那条路。
>
> — 纳瓦尔·拉维坎特, 《纳瓦尔宝典》 第一章·财富

## I — 方法论骨架 (Interpretation)

现代社会的选择无穷多，而每个重大选择的锁定时间极长（创业十年、感情五年以上、城市十年以上），
所以决策的默认值是「否」——只有非常确定时才说「是」。
三条可执行启发式：
① **决策门**：无法决定就答否；做利弊电子表格本身就是「不够确定」的信号，忘掉它；