Individual skill
what-if-oracle
Supports structured what-if scenario analysis for research planning, experimental contingencies, and scientific project decisions. Explores favorable, reference, adverse, wild-card, contrarian, and second-order scenarios with explicit assumptions, evidence, and decision triggers. Use to stress-test a research plan under uncertainty; scenario narratives do not estimate causal effects or calibrated forecast probabilities.
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# What-If Oracle — Research Scenario Planning
Explore a bounded set of possible futures before committing research resources. The output is a scenario comparison, an evidence ledger, and a contingency plan. It does not cover the full possibility space or establish that a narrated mechanism will occur.
The six branch prompts and **0·IF·1** mnemonic come from the upstream What-If framework. Treat the mnemonic as a framing aid: a potential change (**0**), a stated condition (**IF**), and a resulting scenario (**1**). It is not a scientific law or a computational model.
The author's [What-If Paradigm](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18736841) and [Unified Theory of Digital Consciousness](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18807387) are catalogued by Zenodo as preprints. Their deposit and DOI establish provenance, not forecasting accuracy or empirical validation of this workflow.
## When to use
Use for questions such as:
- What if sample attrition is higher than planned?
- What if a method fails to transfer to a new instrument, cohort, or site?