Individual skill
relsa-severity-assessment
Supports multivariate severity assessment and exploratory endpoint-time score forecasting for laboratory animal studies using the RELSA (RELative Severity Assessment) score and ARIMA-based foRcast forecasting. Use when combining welfare readouts — body weight or weight loss, body temperature, clinical or nesting scores, biomarkers, activity, heart rate, burrowing, wheel running — into one severity score per animal per day, when asking which animals are at risk of reaching a humane endpoint at a specified future observation time, when defining attention/danger zones or thresholds on a severity scale by kernel density estimation, or when reporting severity for a 3Rs, refinement, animal-welfare, or EU Directive 2010/63/EU severity-assessment context. Covers directionality ("turned" variables), baseline normalization, reference sets, RELSA weights, ARIMA prediction intervals, and RMSE/PICP/MPIW evaluation.
skills/relsa-severity-assessment/SKILL.md
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# RELSA severity assessment and exploratory score forecasting
## Overview
This skill computes reference-relative multivariate scores and exploratory ARIMA forecasts.
It targets the equations and printed example of [RELSA 0.0.1.9000](https://github.com/mytalbot/RELSA)
(commit `e68e8451e8719ccc3600179f55900cd7254ede9d`, current upstream at review), plus the
published [foRcast methodology](https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2026.1869563).
The Python forecast helper is an independent nonseasonal approximation, not an exact R port.
RELSA is the RMS of directional deviations divided by each variable's reference maximum
**deviation**. Zero means no measured worsening in those directions; it does not establish
normal welfare. One is a reference scale unit, not a universal endpoint or an upper bound.
Different variables may attain their reference extrema in different animals or at different