Individual skill
s4h-probability
Entry point for the probability toolkit. Routes to the right probabilistic thinking skill based on your situation. Use when you say 'probability', 'how likely', 'am I overconfident', 'quantify this', 'what's the base rate', 'expected value', 'scenario weighting', or want probabilistic reasoning applied without knowing which specific tool fits.
skills/s4h-probability/SKILL.md
Source commit a30df8b67698ccb03ef5e35d68c2eddc5321ad3f
What was checked
- Matches the observed repository HEAD
- Yes
- Scanner rules are current
- No
- Repository scan complete
- No
- Skill scan complete
- Yes
- Observed behavior
- Not checked yet
- Last checked
- Nov 5, 2026
These are observations at the recorded commit, not a guarantee of safety. Review the source before running it.
Install this skill
Choose an agent in your Stack or copy a command below. Commands fetch the pinned commit and copy only this skill directory. Existing destinations are refused. Copying a command does not install anything.
An install command is unavailable: current rules, complete repository and skill scans, an eligible behavior level and a permitted license are required.
Repository context
- Repository stars (not skill ratings)
- 240
- Repository last updated
- Jul 15, 2026
- License
- MIT
Observed agent integration: No specific integration evidence. Standard SKILL.md installation does not imply verified compatibility.
- claude-code Repository topic
- claude-code-plugin Repository topic
- cognitive-frameworks Repository topic
- creativity Repository topic
- decision-making Repository topic
- ethics Repository topic
- mental-models Repository topic
- problem-solving Repository topic
- reasoning Repository topic
- systems-thinking Repository topic
- engineering Derived category
Files and excerpt
File metadata and permitted, redacted excerpts come from the recorded scan. Source links are pinned to that commit.
Browse files
SKILL.mdcore · 5,452 bytes
Read excerpt
# Probability
Applies probabilistic thinking to estimates, decisions, and uncertainty. Diagnoses what kind of probability work is needed and applies the right tool.
## Which tool fits
| You need to... | Tool |
|---|---|
| Anchor estimates in historical base rates before adjusting | base-rate-anchoring |
| Test whether stated confidence matches available evidence | confidence-calibration |
| Calculate expected value to compare options under uncertainty | expected-value-calculation |
| Assign probabilities to distinct scenarios before deciding | scenario-weighting |
## Routing Decision