Individual skill
s4h-investigation-counter-hypothesis
Generates the best alternative explanations for the same observations. Use when you have a claim or explanation and want to know whether something else could explain the evidence just as well — 'could there be another explanation', 'what else could cause this', 'am I sure this isn't something else', 'steel-man the alternative', 'what would a skeptic say', 'rival hypotheses'.
skills/s4h-investigation-counter-hypothesis/SKILL.md
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# Investigation: Counter-Hypothesis
The confirmation trap is automatic: once we have an explanation, we look for evidence that supports it and stop looking for evidence that would support alternatives. Counter-hypothesis generation is the structural antidote. The process is not to argue against your explanation — it is to seriously generate the best competing explanations and then ask: given all the evidence, which hypothesis should I actually believe? The decisive test — the observation that, if run, would most clearly discriminate between hypotheses — is the product.
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## Your Process
**Step 1: State the Hypothesis Under Investigation**
Write out the claim or explanation you are currently working with:
- What is being explained? (The observations, pattern, or outcome)
- What does the hypothesis assert is causing, driving, or explaining it?
- What evidence is currently cited in support?
