Individual skill
s4h-probability-scenario-weighting
Assigns explicit probabilities to distinct scenarios before making a decision. Use when asked to 'assign probabilities', 'scenario weighting', 'how likely is each outcome', 'quantify the uncertainty', or 'probability distribution'.
skills/s4h-probability-scenario-weighting/SKILL.md
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# Probability Scenario Weighting
Vague uncertainty — "it might work, it might not" — produces poor decisions. Quantified uncertainty forces precision about what is actually believed and makes implicit assumptions visible. Assigning explicit probabilities to scenarios is not prediction; it is structured belief articulation. The process of assigning and calibrating probabilities often reveals more than the final numbers.
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## Your Process
**Step 1: List Scenarios**
Enumerate all scenarios — they must be mutually exclusive (no overlap) and collectively exhaustive (cover all meaningful possibilities). If "other" is significant, make it explicit. Typically 3–5 scenarios; more than 6 reduces usability.
**Framing check:** Confirm the specific situation and uncertainty before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual decision or situation at stake and the key uncertainty being quantified — in one sentence, then use `AskUserQuestion`:
- **Question:** "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the specific situation and the uncertainty being modelled]. Is that right?"
- **Header:** "Framing"