Individual skill
s4h-probability-confidence-calibration
Tests whether stated confidence levels match available evidence — catching overconfidence and underconfidence. Use when asked to 'calibrate my confidence', 'am I overconfident', 'confidence check', 'how sure should I be', or 'is this as certain as it seems'.
skills/s4h-probability-confidence-calibration/SKILL.md
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# Probability Confidence Calibration
Overconfidence is the most documented and costly bias in judgment. People who say they are 90% confident are right far less than 90% of the time. But underconfidence is also costly — excessive hedging prevents commitment and action when evidence is actually sufficient. Calibration is not about being less confident; it is about having confidence levels that match the available evidence.
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## Your Process
**Step 1: State the Claim and Current Confidence**
Name the specific claim — not a vague domain but a specific, falsifiable statement — and state the current confidence level as a percentage.
**Framing check:** Confirm the specific claim and confidence level before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual claim being evaluated and its stated confidence percentage — in one sentence, then use `AskUserQuestion`:
- **Question:** "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the specific claim and confidence level, e.g. 'You believe X with 85% confidence and want to know if that's calibrated to the evidence']. Is that right?"
- **Header:** "Framing"