Individual skill
s4h-probability-expected-value-calculation
Calculates expected value to compare options under uncertainty. Use when asked about 'expected value', 'is this risk worth taking', 'EV calculation', 'compare these options', 'worth the risk', or 'asymmetric risk'.
skills/s4h-probability-expected-value-calculation/SKILL.md
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# Probability Expected Value Calculation
Expected value is the correct framework for comparing options under uncertainty. It multiplies each outcome's value by its probability and sums across all outcomes, producing a single number that accounts for the full distribution rather than just the most likely case. EV analysis forces explicitness about both probabilities and values — and it exposes asymmetric risk that intuition misses. One important constraint: EV math is overridden when any outcome is catastrophic enough to be unacceptable regardless of probability.
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## Your Process
**Step 1: Define the Options**
List the options being compared. Include "do nothing" or "wait" as explicit options — they have EVs too.
**Framing check:** Confirm the specific decision and its options before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual choice being evaluated, the options in play, and the unit of value — in one sentence, then use `AskUserQuestion`:
- **Question:** "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the decision, its options, and what success/failure looks like]. Is that right?"
- **Header:** "Framing"