Individual skill
earnings-forecast
盈利预测与一致预期分析（自上而下/自下而上预测法/SUE/PEAD/分析师预期修正），捕捉业绩超预期交易机会。
agent/src/skills/earnings-forecast/SKILL.md
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- backtesting Repository topic
- multi-agent Repository topic
- quantitative-finance Repository topic
- trading Repository topic
- ai-agent Repository topic
- algorithmic-trading Repository topic
- fintech Repository topic
- llm Repository topic
- mcp Repository topic
- python Repository topic
- engineering Derived category
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# 盈利预测与一致预期
## 概述
围绕企业盈利预测和市场一致预期偏差构建交易信号。核心逻辑：股价短期由盈利预期差驱动，捕捉「预期差」比预测绝对盈利更有价值。两条主线：① 自主预测 vs 一致预期对比寻找偏差；② 跟踪分析师预期修正动量。
## 核心概念
### 1. 自上而下预测法（Top-Down）
**预测链条：**
```
GDP增速预测 → 行业增加值增速 → 行业收入增速 → 龙头公司收入增速 → 利润率假设 → EPS预测
```