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earnings-revision

Earnings estimate revisions, guidance analysis, and post-earnings drift (PEAD) — track analyst consensus changes, earnings surprise patterns, and management guidance shifts for US/HK equities.

agent/src/skills/earnings-revision/SKILL.md

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# Earnings Revision & Guidance Analysis

## Overview

Track sell-side analyst estimate revisions, management guidance changes, and post-earnings price drift to generate investment signals. Earnings revisions are among the most persistent and well-documented alpha factors in equity markets — stocks with upward revisions tend to continue outperforming, and vice versa.

## Core Concepts

### 1. Earnings Revision Momentum

**The revision signal hierarchy (strongest to weakest):**

| Signal Type | Description | Typical Alpha (annualized) | Persistence |
|-------------|-------------|---------------------------|-------------|
| Earnings surprise (beat/miss) | Actual EPS vs consensus | 3-8% post-event drift | 60-90 days (PEAD) |
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