Individual skill

jqte-forecasting

Use when a 《数量经济技术经济研究》 (JQTE) manuscript makes a forecasting or prediction claim — macro forecasting, business-cycle / sentiment indices, mixed-frequency nowcasting, or model-based prediction. Enforces genuine out-of-sample evaluation (RMSE / MAE / directional accuracy / Diebold-Mariano), a proper benchmark, and a recursive / rolling design. The fastest desk-reject here is reporting in-sample fit only.

Journal-of-Quantitative-and-Technological-Economics-Skills/skills/jqte-forecasting/SKILL.md

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Sep 27, 2026
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MIT

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# 预测评估(jqte-forecasting)

## 触发时机

- 文章声称"能预测"某宏观/行业指标或景气
- 只报了样本内拟合(R²、拟合图),没有样本外检验
- 没有对比基准模型,无法说明"预测得更好"

## 本刊铁律:样本外评估 + 基准对比

**只报样本内拟合是高频拒因。** 预测的价值在样本外,必须有真正的 out-of-sample 设计和一个像样的基准。

## 必备四件套
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