Individual skill
jqte-forecasting
Use when a 《数量经济技术经济研究》 (JQTE) manuscript makes a forecasting or prediction claim — macro forecasting, business-cycle / sentiment indices, mixed-frequency nowcasting, or model-based prediction. Enforces genuine out-of-sample evaluation (RMSE / MAE / directional accuracy / Diebold-Mariano), a proper benchmark, and a recursive / rolling design. The fastest desk-reject here is reporting in-sample fit only.
Journal-of-Quantitative-and-Technological-Economics-Skills/skills/jqte-forecasting/SKILL.md
Source commit 932eb23331721b16e967c59f093781be1928b498
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- Yes
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- Yes
- Observed behavior
- Not checked yet
- Last checked
- Nov 9, 2026
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- Repository stars (not skill ratings)
- 1,411
- Repository last updated
- Sep 27, 2026
- License
- MIT
Observed agent integration: No specific integration evidence. Standard SKILL.md installation does not imply verified compatibility.
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SKILL.mdcore · 5,720 bytes
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# 预测评估(jqte-forecasting)
## 触发时机
- 文章声称"能预测"某宏观/行业指标或景气
- 只报了样本内拟合(R²、拟合图),没有样本外检验
- 没有对比基准模型,无法说明"预测得更好"
## 本刊铁律:样本外评估 + 基准对比
**只报样本内拟合是高频拒因。** 预测的价值在样本外,必须有真正的 out-of-sample 设计和一个像样的基准。
## 必备四件套