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aejpol-robustness

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Use when an AEJ: Economic Policy manuscript's headline policy estimate needs to be shown stable and credible against specification, sample, inference, and identification threats. Organizes the robustness program by threat-to-the-policy-conclusion; it does not design the primary identification or write exhibits.

AEJ-Economic-Policy-Skills/skills/aejpol-robustness/SKILL.md

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# Robustness — Defending the Policy Estimate (aejpol-robustness)

## When to trigger

- The headline causal estimate moves across specifications, or you do not yet know if it does
- A referee will ask "is this robust?" and you have no organized answer
- Inference (clustering, few clusters, multiple outcomes) is not yet airtight
- You need to show the **policy conclusion**, not just a coefficient, survives stress

## Principle: robustness defends the policy conclusion, not the coefficient

At AEJ: Policy, robustness is judged by whether the **policy takeaway** is stable — if the headline estimate is the cost-per-job or the MVPF, show *that* number is stable, with its uncertainty, not merely that a regression coefficient stays significant. Organize the robustness program around the **threats that would change the policy conclusion**, and report enough that a skeptical referee can see each threat addressed.

### Robustness by threat (each maps to a concrete check)
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