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cte-mechanism

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Use when designing or writing mechanism analyses for a 《财贸经济》 empirical manuscript. Mechanism tests that open the "policy black box" and land on identifiable channels are near-mandatory for empirical submissions. 本技能服务于《财贸经济》(Finance & Trade Economics, CTE)。

Finance-and-Trade-Economics-Skills/skills/cte-mechanism/SKILL.md

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# 机制分析（cte-mechanism）

## 触发时机

- 主回归结果已稳健，但缺机制分析（"机制黑箱"是本刊退稿雷区之一）
- 机制只有"我们认为可能是因为企业……"的口头说明
- 审稿人问"为什么这项财税 / 金融 / 贸易政策会有这个效应？"

## 财经研究的机制必须落到可识别渠道

《财贸经济》忌讳机制停留在宏观口号（"促进了高质量发展"）。机制变量应落到**企业 / 银行 / 地方政府 / 居民 / 市场**的可观测行为或资源配置上，例如：

- 企业行为：投资、研发、雇佣、融资结构、税负与现金流、出口决策
- 金融中介：信贷投放、风险定价、期限结构、不良率、流动性
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