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ceq-mechanism

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Use when a 《经济学(季刊)》 (China Economic Quarterly, CEQ) manuscript has a credible main effect but the channel/mechanism is asserted rather than evidenced — to design tests that distinguish competing channels and provide falsifiable mechanism evidence. Use after identification is settled.

China-Economic-Quarterly-Skills/skills/ceq-mechanism/SKILL.md

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# 机制证据（ceq-mechanism）

## 触发时机

- 主效应识别干净，但机制只是"我们认为可能是因为…"
- 有多个竞争渠道，没办法区分
- 审稿人问"你怎么知道是 M 而不是 M'"

## CEQ 的机制要求：可证伪，能区分

CEQ 不接受把"中介回归显著"当机制证明。机制证据要满足：
1. **有理论命题**：机制 M 推出一个**可证伪**的实证含义。
2. **能区分竞争渠道**：设计能把 M 与 M' 分开，而非笼统"存在影响"。
3. **与主识别同源**：机制检验尽量沿用主设计的外生变异，而非另起一套内生回归。
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