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cjms-empirical-validation

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Use when designing the real-data validation of a 《中国管理科学》 (Chinese Journal of Management Science) manuscript — forecasting and financial-engineering strands: data provenance, rolling out-of-sample tests, benchmark batteries, and significance of improvement. Validates methods on data; simulation-based studies belong to cjms-numerical-experiments.

Chinese-Journal-of-Management-Science-Skills/skills/cjms-empirical-validation/SKILL.md

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Sep 27, 2026
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# 实证与数据检验（cjms-empirical-validation）

## 触发时机

- 预测/金融类稿件只有全样本内拟合，没有样本外
- "新方法更优"只凭一张误差表，没有显著性检验
- 数据来源、频率、区间交代不清，无法复现

## 核心：本刊实证的四道硬门

预测与决策、市场与投资分析两个栏目的稿件，外审按四道门检查：

1. **数据可溯源**：来源（Wind/CSMAR/交易所官网/公开能源数据）、频率、起止区间、缺失处理逐项写明；关键序列给描述统计与平稳性检验。
2. **样本外为王**：训练/验证/测试切分或滚动窗口预先声明；窗口长度、步长、再估计频率写清。样本内 R² 再高也不算证据。
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