Individual skill

ceq-identification

Use when the identification strategy is the bottleneck for a 《经济学(季刊)》 (China Economic Quarterly, CEQ) manuscript — either a structural model with credible parameters, or a clean quasi-experiment (DID / IV / RDD / event-study). CEQ is the strictest Chinese econ journal here; identification assumptions must be made explicit and each defended. Stress-test the design before drafting exhibits.

China-Economic-Quarterly-Skills/skills/ceq-identification/SKILL.md

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# 识别策略(ceq-identification)

## 触发时机

- 实证主体仅 OLS + 控制变量,把相关性当因果
- 有处理/外生变异,但识别假设没写清、没逐条辩护
- 拿不准走结构估计还是准实验路线

## CEQ 的铁律:要么结构,要么准实验

CEQ 不接受"加一堆控制变量就声称因果"。两条合法路径:

- **结构估计**:微观基础清晰、识别假设显式、参数有经济含义、能做反事实。
- **准实验**:DID / IV / RDD / event-study,外生变异来源可信、识别假设可检验。
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