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cie-mechanism

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Use when a 《中国工业经济》 (China Industrial Economics) manuscript needs mechanism evidence. Prefers split-channel and moderation (heterogeneity-by-mechanism) regressions and treats the three-step mediation method as suspect — per Jiang (2022, CIE 2022:5), the journal's own methodological-norm guide. Use after the main effect is identified.

China-Industrial-Economics-Skills/skills/cie-mechanism/SKILL.md

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# 机制检验（cie-mechanism）

## 触发时机

- 主效应有了，但只能说"我们认为可能是因为…"
- 机制只用了三步法（逐步回归）中介
- 调节效应只报交互项显著，没说它如何强化因果论证

## 本刊立场：警惕三步中介（重要）

本刊**亲自发表过该领域的方法规范名篇**——**江艇（2022）《因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应》，《中国工业经济》2022 年第 5 期**。其核心结论：

- **三步法（逐步法）中介被严重滥用**：把 Y 对 M 回归并不能识别"X→M→Y"的因果链，因为 M 通常内生、且 M→Y 这一步缺乏识别
- 推荐做法：**集中识别 X→M 这一段**（M 作为新的结果变量，沿用主识别策略），机制链条的 M→Y 一段交给理论与既有文献支撑
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