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er-mechanism

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Use when designing or writing the mechanism analysis for an Economic-Research empirical manuscript. Enforces the post-江艇(2022) paradigm — estimate D→M with the main identification strategy and argue M→Y from theory, instead of running mediation step-wise / Sobel tests.

Economic-Research-Journal-Skills/skills/er-mechanism/SKILL.md

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# 机制分析（er-mechanism）

机制分析是《经济研究》实证文章的近乎必备环节。但**它的方法论近年发生了根本转向**——本 skill 按转向后的口径写。

## 触发时机

- 主回归结果已稳健，但缺机制分析
- 机制只有"我们认为可能是因为……"的口头说明
- 审稿人问"为什么会有这个效应？"
- 你正打算（或已经）跑中介效应三步法 / Sobel 检验 —— **请先读下一节**

## ⚠ 范式转向：不要再用中介效应逐步法

**江艇（2022）《因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应》，《中国工业经济》第 5 期，第 100–120 页**——已成为四大刊（《经济研究》《管理世界》《中国工业经济》《经济学（季刊）》）机制分析的准规范。核心结论：
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