Individual skill
cte-identification
Use when the empirical identification strategy is the bottleneck for a 《财贸经济》 manuscript — fiscal / tax / financial / trade policy shocks and firm- / city- / bank-level quasi-experimental designs (DID, IV, RDD, DML). Stress-tests the design and the policy endogeneity before drafting tables. 本技能服务于《财贸经济》(Finance & Trade Economics, CTE)。
Finance-and-Trade-Economics-Skills/skills/cte-identification/SKILL.md
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# 因果识别策略（cte-identification）
## 触发时机
- 实证主体仅有描述统计 + OLS + 控制变量
- 核心解释变量是**政策 / 制度冲击**（税制改革、财政试点、金融监管、贸易政策），但没处理政策内生与预期
- DID 用了 TWFE 但没回应近年异质性处理批评（Goodman-Bacon, de Chaisemartin, Sun-Abraham, Callaway-Sant'Anna）
- IV 第一阶段 F 弱 / 工具变量排他性疑虑
- 用了机器学习控制高维协变量但没做正交化 / 交叉拟合（DML）
## 设计优先级
《财贸经济》编委对财经实证的偏好排序（强 → 弱）：
