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er-theory-hypotheses

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Use when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map one-to-one onto the empirical design.

Economic-Research-Journal-Skills/skills/er-theory-hypotheses/SKILL.md

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# 理论分析与研究假设（er-theory-hypotheses）

## 触发时机

- 引言已写完，但"理论分析与研究假设"一节还只是文献综述的延续
- 有实证设计、有结果，却没有事前的逻辑推演说明"为什么应该有这个效应"
- 假设写成了"X 影响 Y"，没有方向、不挂理论、无法证伪
- 审稿人问"你的假设是怎么从理论推出来的？"
- 提出了 H2、H3 却在后文没有任何对应检验

《经济研究》极重视理论贡献。这一节通常位于引言之后、研究设计之前，承担"事前论证"的全部责任。

## 理论分析一节的两种主流写法
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