Individual skill
imfer-identification
Use when the identification argument is the bottleneck for an IMF Economic Review (IMFER) manuscript — cross-country panel, high-frequency policy-surprise, crisis event study, narrative, or open-economy structural identification. Stress-tests the data-to-object mapping to IMFER's policy-relevant bar; it does not build the model (imfer-theory-model) or run the robustness suite (imfer-robustness).
IMF-Economic-Review-Skills/skills/imfer-identification/SKILL.md
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# Identification Strategy (imfer-identification)
## When to trigger
- A cross-country causal claim rests on OLS-plus-controls or TWFE on staggered policy adoption
- A high-frequency policy-surprise series (monetary, FX intervention) needs its exclusion defended
- A crisis "event study" cannot separate the policy from the macro shock that triggered it
- A capital-control or program effect is plausibly **endogenous to the crisis** it is meant to address
- An open-economy model's parameters are estimated but it is unclear *what in the data* identifies them
## The IMFER identification bar
IMFER referees read as both frontier econometricians and policy analysts, so the **mapping from data to the policy-relevant object** must be explicit *and* the object must be the one a policymaker cares about. International-macro data make this harder than a clean single-country RCT: small N of countries, endogenous policy adoption, global common shocks, and spillovers that violate SUTVA across borders. Name the variation, defend it against the macro confounder, and report inference that respects cross-country dependence.
