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aejpol-identification

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Use when the credibility of the causal evaluation of a policy is the bottleneck for an AEJ: Economic Policy manuscript — DID/event study, IV, RDD/bunching, or RCT of a program. Stress-tests the quasi-experimental policy-evaluation design to the AEJ: Policy bar before exhibits are finalized; it does not build the welfare mapping or write exhibits.

AEJ-Economic-Policy-Skills/skills/aejpol-identification/SKILL.md

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# Identification — Credible Policy Evaluation (aejpol-identification)

## When to trigger

- The causal effect of a policy rests on OLS + controls, or TWFE on staggered policy adoption
- A reform / threshold / experiment exists but the design's assumptions are not pinned down
- A referee questions whether the estimated effect is really *caused by the policy*
- You are unsure the design clears AEJ: Policy's credible-causal-evidence bar

## The AEJ: Policy identification bar

AEJ: Policy is an empirical policy journal: the **effect attributed to the policy must be credibly causal**, the **estimand must be the policy-relevant one**, and the design must survive the obvious confound that the policy was not random. The policy variation *is* the research design — name it explicitly (a reform date, an eligibility cutoff, a formula kink, a randomized rollout) and defend the assumption that makes it causal. Report **standard errors** (no significance asterisks; see `aejpol-tables-figures`) and make the design reproducible for the AEA Data Editor.

## Design paths
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