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imfer-robustness

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Use when an IMF Economic Review (IMFER) manuscript's headline cross-country estimate must be shown to survive specification, sample, country-composition, and inference choices before submission or in an R&R. Builds the robustness suite a dual academic/policy referee expects; it does not establish identification (imfer-identification) or format exhibits (imfer-tables-figures).

IMF-Economic-Review-Skills/skills/imfer-robustness/SKILL.md

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# Robustness Suite (imfer-robustness)

## When to trigger

- The main estimate is in hand and you must show it is not an artifact of one specification
- A referee asks "is this driven by a few countries / a particular crisis episode / the sample window?"
- The result depends on a sample-selection rule, a country grouping, or a deflator/exchange-rate convention
- You suspect a global common shock or one influential economy is doing the work
- You want to pre-empt specification-search and country-cherry-picking concerns

## The IMFER robustness bar

IMFER referees probe whether the headline number is **stable, honestly inferred, and not the product of country-composition or specification search** — and, distinctively, whether it would still *guide policy* under reasonable alternatives. Robustness here is a targeted set of checks, each tied to a specific threat to an *international-macro* design, not a wall of regressions. The persuasive object is that the **point estimate barely moves** when you drop the obvious country, switch the window, or change the inference.
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