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aeja-identification

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Use when the causal identification argument is the bottleneck for an American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (AEJ: Applied) manuscript — RCT, difference-in-differences/event study, regression discontinuity, IV, or shift-share. Stress-tests the data-to-causal-estimate mapping to the AEJ: Applied credibility bar before exhibits are finalized; it does not write the prose or build the package.

AEJ-Applied-Economics-Skills/skills/aeja-identification/SKILL.md

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# Identification Strategy (aeja-identification)

## When to trigger

- A causal claim rests on OLS + controls, or TWFE on staggered timing
- An RCT's estimand, balance, or attrition handling is not pinned down
- An RD's density, bandwidth, or covariate-smoothness defense is missing
- An IV's first stage is weak or the exclusion restriction is asserted, not argued
- You are unsure the design clears AEJ: Applied's credibility bar

## The AEJ: Applied identification bar

AEJ: Applied is **identification-driven applied micro**: the **mapping from a source of variation to the causal estimand must be explicit, defended, and falsifiable**. Editors and referees here are unusually sophisticated about modern design pitfalls — staggered-DID bias, weak IV, RD manipulation, shift-share exogeneity. State the estimand, name the identifying assumption, show the diagnostic that could have failed but didn't, and keep the claim inside what the design supports. Inference must match the design (clustering at the assignment level; few-cluster corrections).
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