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cfe-mechanism

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Use when designing or writing mechanism analyses for a Journal-of-Finance-and-Economics (《财经研究》) empirical manuscript — mechanism tests are near-mandatory for the journal's empirical submissions. 使用时机：主回归已稳健但机制缺位、中介效应只跑了 Sobel 检验、审稿人追问"为什么会有这个效应"、或机制小节需要按本刊惯例独立成节并排除竞争性解释时。Covers 路径 A/B/C 的选择、时间一致性与可证伪性三原则、机制表呈现惯例与解读句改写。

Journal-of-Finance-and-Economics-Skills/skills/cfe-mechanism/SKILL.md

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Sep 27, 2026
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# 机制分析（cfe-mechanism）

## 触发时机

- 主回归结果已稳健，但缺机制分析
- 机制只有"我们认为可能是因为..."的口头说明
- 审稿人问"为什么会有这个效应？"
- 中介效应只跑了 Sobel 检验

## 三种主流路径

### 路径 A：中介效应 / 调节效应

- 经典 Baron & Kenny 三步法已被弱化 → 推荐 Bootstrap 间接效应 + 因果中介（Imai-Keele-Yamamoto）
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